[05#5] 1.5=3=12.25: US Defense 1; Future 1; Russia-US 4:BRIC

Cloudy, tiny sun&rain? cool: up 8:30 for KTSF26 China news, fat Hawaiian contractor tel for house, so quick breakfast then walked there giving him appln form, 11:30-12:15 swept halls around then smooth out back side rain exit route. tv-emails as usual, then finally checked side ssmall table top documents. 6:20 start this diary adding lunar date of "12.25" & dropping "0) Diary" from this text, few minutes and A-Mei & Jun home now. A-Mei checked tel recording and found 3 persons called for house, one unable to find highway exit. Finishing this blog to 11:40pm. 1) US Defense #1: NMD (Nat. Missile Defense) "Rude awakening to missile-defense dream", By Scott Ritter. "" Commentary > Opinion from the January 04, 2005 edition "" of the Christian Science Monitor: http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0104/p09s02-coop.html "" DELMAR, N.Y. – On Christmas Eve 2004, the Russian Strategic Missile Force test fired an advanced SS-27 Topol-M road-mobile intercontinental ballistic Missile (ICBM). This test probably invalidated the entire premise and technology used in the National Missile Defense (NMD) system currently being developed and deployed "" "" From 1988 to 1990, I served as one of the American weapons inspectors at the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Russia, where the SS-27 and its predecessor, the SS-25, were assembled. "" "" Through the work of the inspectors at Votkinsk, as well as several related inspections where US experts were able to view the SS-25 missile system in its operating bases in Siberia, a great deal of data was collected "" "" not a single Iraqi mobile missile launcher was destroyed by hostile fire, a fact I can certify not only as a participant in the counter-SCUD effort, but also as a chief inspector in Iraq, where I led the United Nations investigations into the Iraqi missile program. "" "" program ran to some $10.8 billion from 1993 to 2000. When President Bush came to power in 2001, there was a dramatic change in posture regarding ballistic missile defense. "" "" the administration laid out a comprehensive plan that envisioned a layered missile-defense system. After studying the SS-25 missile for years, the US military believed it finally had a solution in the form of a multitiered antiballistic missile system that focused on boost-phase intercept (firing antimissile missiles that would home in on an ICBM shortly after launch), space-based laser systems designed to knock out a missile in flight, and terminal missile intercept systems, which would destroy a missile as it reentered the earth's atmosphere. The NMD system being fielded to counter the SS-25, and any similar or less sophisticated threats that may emerge from China, Iran, North Korea, and elsewhere, will probably have cumulative costs between $800 billion and $1.2 trillion by the time it reaches completion in 2015. However, the Bush administration's dream of a viable NMD has been rendered fantasy by the Russian test of the SS-27 Topol-M. According to the Russians, the Topol-M has high-speed solid-fuel boosters that rapidly lift the missile into the atmosphere, making boost-phase interception impossible unless one is located practically next door to the launcher. The SS-27 has been hardened against laser weapons and has a highly maneuverable post-boost vehicle that can defeat any intercept capability as it dispenses up to three warheads and four sophisticated decoys. To counter the SS-27 threat, the US will need to start from scratch. "" "" The Bush administration would do well to reconsider its commitment to a national missile-defense system, and instead reengage in the kind of treaty-based diplomacy that in the past produced arms control results that were both real and lasting. This would not only save billions, it would make America, and the world, a safer place. • Scott Ritter is a former intelligence officer and weapons inspector in the Soviet Union (1988-1990) and Iraq (1991-1998). He is author of 'Frontier Justice: Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Bushwhacking of America.' "" 2) Future Perspective #1: Oswald Spengler, 1918-1923 1. "The Decline of the West", 1918-1923 http://foster.20megsfree.com/460.htm http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0195066340/qid=1104981920/sr=2-1/ref=pd_ka_b_2_1/002-7690483-1496032 2. "Prophet of Decline: Spengler on World History and Politics", John Farrenkopf, Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 2001 http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0807126535/qid=1104994948/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_0_1/202-0107044-4407010 3. "Hour of Decision", by Oswald Spengler, http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0404169880/qid=1104995356/sr=1-3/ref=sr_1_3/002-7690483-1496032?v=glance&s=books http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1410202666/qid=1104995670/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/002-7690483-1496032?v=glance&s=books 4. "The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilizationby", Patrick J. Buchanan "As a growing population has long been a mark of healthy nations and rising civilizations, falling populations have been a sign of nations and civilizations..." (more) http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0312302592/qid=1104995863/sr=2-1/ref=pd_ka_b_2_1/002-7690483-1496032 "" a strikingly faithful recapitulation of Spengler's warnings in The Hour of Decision. "", 2. 2) Russia-US #4: BRIC (Brazil-Russia-India-China) 1. "" "Putin leads BRIC alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and plays oil trump card ?some Russian Yukos oil assets for China and India", Sudhir Chadda, Special CorrespondentJanuary 04, 2005 "" http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/01-04f-05.asp 2. "Russia walks thin line between Japan and China", By Sergei Blagov, Jan. 5, Central Asia. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GA05Ag01.html