2005.5.10=2[#130]:4703.4.3[#60+31/60]: [Health ToolChina Has Made It!? #10004s] Send Hiro/Dju to Airport, Get Passport. [[China...#10004:WMD, Farce

[Interactive Health Tools] http://www.pamf.org/healthinformation/tools.html Fair & mild: Early 5:30 up, mom feels faint, but at the last moment joins me, drive to Dju&Hiro, to Oakland airport quickly for 11am to LA. Then 2 of us to SF ROC TECO get mom's new passport with "TAIWAN" in front. 101 to 99, Walgreen then o.h., Jung tel. about their air schedule to LA & Taiwan. Evening home, mails, emails, dinner, blog here already 2:00am, Jyun bed, 2:10 bed. A short response to [W&P]'s M. on "China Has Made It!? #10004: Taiwan WMD, Farce & Family Migration[Tsai 05.5.9=1 #1] That is the real thing here, I'm afraid. Let me check after I had checked some latest news I could get online following my answer here to your statement at the end: > >"" You guys have the Israeli/South African nuclear bomb design that the Israelis tested in an airburst over the South Atlantic which set off the old Vela Hotel sensors. The design works. It might be time to publically test a delivery system and then do an open test of one of the warheads. The nukes won't give you an outright win, but it might give you a standoff that would be to your advantage. "" No, I can't find it. What would be the best online sources? > > There I don't know, because that detonation predates general access to the internet. I do recall of all things that Ellen Goodman did an editorial about it in the Boston Globe. Here's a generalized overview of the Vela program and the double flash on 22, September 1979. The only error in the article is that it left Taiwan out, but then again, that's based on a report by Seymore Hersh and some back channel stuff from the State Department that I ran across some years back, in connection with a bit of Israeli industrial espionage and technical piracy over a very nice Pratt & Whitney jet engine that they'd planned on stealing and then producing in Taiwan so that they could dodge interference from the State Department's Munitions Export Control Office when it came to export of Lavi fighters. (One of the reasons that they cancelled the program was export restrictions after their engine deal fell through. Pratt & Whitney's security people wouldn't even let em on the property, which led to a small civil war inside the State Department. ) Here's a link to an overview of the Vela Hotel program: http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/encyclopedia/V/Ve/Vela_(satellite).htm Here's the story. Way back in September 79, there were 12 old Satellites launched by an OV-1 modified Atlas F missiles and Titan III Cs called Vela Hotel. (Vela is Spanish for watchman, which I guess is a pretty good name.)The Velas were intended to detect radioflash, (EMP) from the Compton Effect from an atmospheric nuclear detonation.They also had internal neutron flux sensors, external xray sensors and visible light sensors. Think of em as a big multispectral inferometer and you get the idea. The satellites were launched and spent several years quietly orbiting and from time to time sending a signal from one French atmospheric test or another until one day, they detected a detonation over the South Atlantic down near the Antarctic. Needless to say, there was some major debate, not least of which because nobody had publically claimed an atmospheric nuclear test. The Chinese did all of their testing at Lop Nor. The Indians had detonated one bomb back in 69 or so, and we and the Russians and the British, (using our test range in the latter case) did our nuclear testing underground at the National Atomic Proving Grounds or in such lovely places as Semipalitinsk. The location of the detonation was wrong for it to be a French test, since they do theirs in the Pacific. But there was the data from both Vela Hotels. So, some folks claimed that it was a natural event, sort of like a high altitude version of the Tunguska event, and others stating that it was a design transcient in both satellites and from there, the list of excuses and explanations went from speculation to aberration. Either way, the satellites detected two flashes which would correspond to two nuclear detonations. Given that the neutron sensors detected neutron flux, I think that mechanical energy from an incoming comet or asteroidal debris can be safely discounted. It takes nuclear reactions to get neutron flux on one of those detectors. So, speculation sort of rose and died. Then a few years later, it came out that a complex of nuclear aspirant powers, Israel, South Africa and Taiwan had been swapping technologies and materials to achieve a bomb. (Mr. Hersh's research for his book, The Sampson Option about the Israeli nuclear program turned up much critical information on this, much to the embarassment of several governments including the West Germans who'd sold the gas centrifuge technology to begin with.) South Africa had gotten the gas centrifuge technology from a complex of German companies that used to be IG Farben and functionally still were. (It's amazing what you can get with interlocking directorates and shared stock portfolios,...........) Israel provided the basic bomb design, the Laser Isotope Separation Process, practical experience with plutonium chemistry, access to some materials and a bomb design that was pretty much pirated from the US Mk-28 modular nuclear bomb design. Taiwan provided some other non-specified expertise and money and covert production facilities to make various support systems, some of which I think might have been electronic and a deniable conduit for materials purchases and technology acquisition which might have run alarm bells had it have been Israel or South Africa inquiring. Anyway, the high altitude detonation was a field test of the bomb and a delivery system which was probably based on the upper stages of the MD-660 Jericho I, which had started out as a joint project with Avions de Marcel Desault. And one of the reasons that Taiwan ostentatiously stepped away from it's own overt missile programs is that it had the Israeli missile technology. (When the French dropped out after 1967, it would appear that a lot of the solid fuel technology came from the United States, to include cold gas TVC, (Thrust Vector Control) which is a Polaris missile program technology. (Mossad is always busy and it never sleeps. ) So, Taiwan does have a bomb design that works. We tested a bunch of them and the Israelis tested their modified copy without a fizzle yield, which could be expected given that it was our bomb and we'd worked the bugs out of it before somebody gave them the details of the design. Israel still has their bombs, and Taiwan has it's small arsenal. The only one of the three that disarmed was South Africa, and that was overseen by Defense Nuclear Agency guys who'd been seconded to the State Department just for that purpose. In all of history, there have only been two actual viable nuclear powers with their own organic production capability that have ever disarmed, and that's South Africa and the Ukraine. Canada would be a third, but their bombs were actually our bombs with a dual key Permissive Action Link in them with a US Officer required to participate in the decision to install the strike enable plugs and insert the codes to close the security interlocks on them. And since Taiwan has the bomb, it probably also has the ability to manufacture more. If you don't test, the only way to have a reliable deterrent is to set a short shelflife and scrap out of date bombs and make new ones. With a low volume isotope separation capability, there's probably a slow but steady growth in Taiwan's nuclear stockpile. So, assuming that you have a credible delivery system, and preferably two or three so that you have overlapping performance envelopes and thus complicate the mainlanders defense problems, and given that the optimum time to invade will be in 06, given that Beijing wants no real embarassments when the Olympics comes to Beijing in 08, this would be a very good time to do an overt nuclear test. Keep in mind that the bomb that the Israelis stole and probably copied, is a modern levitated pit, tritium boosted thermonuclear warhead with variable yield coming from interchangable pits. Furthermore the Mk-28 has thermonic neutron generators so you don't get stuck with a 60inch diameter limitation from a betatron or the 60 day replacement cycle from a Polonium/Beryllium urchin type initiator. So you've got a bomb that can have a yield of anywhere between 20 kilotonnes and 1.2 Megatonnes, depending on configuration and the bomb's age. That's plenty of firepower and while I don't know that it could be practically used except in a Gotterdammerung sort of scenario, nevertheless it adds enough uncertainty to the game to make Beijing's amphibious and airborne forces and their missile forces aimed at the island, something less than an overwhelming threat. My guess is that Europe's reluctance to sell you any submarines is probably out of a fear that you'll install cruise missiles on them which in turn would mean that Beijing, which is somebody that they're courting because of their desire to dismantle Russia and break it up into spheres of influence controlled by EEC and Beijing through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, might not get everything that it wants. And Europe, being mostly run by central banks and governments with welfare states to support, want and demand stability over everything and anything else. Dismantling Russia and turning China into a major imperial power does that. In some respects, the world is starting to resemble Orwell's old nightmare. >My worry politically now is that President Chen attacked former Pres. Lee as he, himself is pursuing Pres. Lee' line now, Pres. Lee has changed as he is no longer the president. I think many of us consider the former Pres. Lee as our Washington, that's why Pres. Chen is stll running his show. But, it's not very good tor the current president to attack one's Washington. > > Looks to me like your politicians are looking for an exit strategy, which is a bad sign. What it means is that they're trying to find an angle that won't put them in front of a firing squad from the Peoples Armed Police, and that's a big indication that somebody has decided not to fight if the mainlanders send troops. Bad, bad situation since unlike Hong Kong which was essentially a situation where the Chinese got back territory and the locals didn't really have any say in the matter, Taiwan could well suffer some retribution, because it's long been a thorn in Beijing's side. And the old Go players in Beijing aren't anywhere near as conciliatory as General Grant was when he dictated terms to General Lee. My advice is that if Taiwan's government doesn't do an open nuclear test or something else to indicate that they actually are willing to fight for their existance, then it's time to convince your family to get the hell out of dodge and promise your grandparents bone money so that their remains can be shipped back when they die. There's no way in Hell that I'd stay there when the politicians are looking like the French politicians did after Rommel did his breakout from Sedan. Dig out a copy of Military Misfortunes by Elliot Cohen and John Gooch and look at what happened when the Third Republic fell. Then read about what it was like in France after the Nazis took over. Then get your relatives out of there by any means necessary. ""